It wouldn’t take a genius to recognize this year’s MVP award will be a two-horse race. Which means it’s either going to be Russell Westbrook or James Harden, and it wouldn’t even be close.
The Dream Shake’s Max Croes, a Harden supporter, chased down 62 out of the 100 MVP votes with the help of the Twitterverse and found out one thing: It’s going to be Westbrook’s award to lose.
Our crowd-sourcing and canvassing has found 62 of the NBA’s 100 first place votes for 2017 MVP. There was no announced list, so we identified the votes and that a voter had a ballot using Twitter, interviews, podcasts, articles and TV broadcasts.
And Westbrook will edge Harden.
And right now we estimate the MVP race, after 62 first place votes, to be at:
James Harden: 456
Croes then went on to mention a probability professor to help with the odds computation and here’s what he found out.
Before we got to 62 first place votes counted we asked an associate professor of statistics at Wheelock College, Dr. Samuel Cook, to give us the odds.
With 59 total first place votes counted, Dr. Cook projects if the remaining 41 first and second place votes only go to Harden and Westbrook, and each voter puts Harden in 1st with probability 50%, then in 10,000 simulations Westbrook wins 99.9% of the time.
This probability drops minimally to 98.9% if you assume Westbrook will get more 3rd place votes than Harden at the current trend.
From the looks of it, Westbrook will take home the Maurice Podoloff trophy but Harden will advance to the second round to face either San Antonio or Memphis.